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GOP Opts for Capitulation and Survival on Immigration

The GOP wants to survive. That is one interpretation of the move toward amnesty and broad immigration reform spearheaded by a bipartisan group of senators today.

The other is that elections have consequences.

Four Republican and four Democratic senators are pushing a path to American citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants who would need to pay fines and taxes, and await government certification of tough border security. But these provisions are nothing more than political cover for what was unthinkable just a few months ago: Amnesty.

via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/gop-opts-for-capitulation-and-survival-on-immigration-20130128

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Can Obama Make History on Immigration?

This is actually happening. That’s the viewpoint of Capitol Hill aides, lobbyists, advocates, and politicians who have been involved in the immigration debate for 10, 20, and in some cases 30 years. They are psyched. They are scared. They are sober.

They miss the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., who has been at the forefront of every immigration law since 1965. They are grateful for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who has spurred a new way of thinking about immigration among conservatives.

This account is based on interviews with more than a dozen people close to the immigration talks on Capitol Hill and in the White House.

via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/can-obama-make-history-on-immigration-20130128?page=1

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Obama-Boehner Relationship Plunges to New Low With ‘Annihilate’ Remark

Ouch! President Obama’s inaugural speech clearly hit a raw nerve with House Speaker John Boehner. The Ohio Republican complained to a closed luncheon on Tuesday — the day after Obama’s address — that the president’s goal is to “annihilate” Republicans “shove us into the dustbin of history.”

A partial transcript of Boehner’s remarks, delivered during a closed luncheon sponsored by the Ripon Society, is posted here. The comments are the latest indication the Obama-Boehner relationship continues to head south — an ominous sign for the ability of the two men to work together on the hefty legislative agenda the president is pushing, including immigration reform and efforts to settle a series of skirmishes on the budget. Late last month, Boehner took issue with Obama remarks in an NBC appearance regarding Republicans’ role in stalled fiscal cliff negotiations, responding “Americans elected President Obama to lead, not cast blame.”

At the luncheon, Boehner indicated he’s bracing for tougher times, saying of the inaugural speech, “given what we heard yesterday about the president’s vision for his second term, it’s pretty clear to me that he knows he can’t do any of that as long as the House is controlled by Republicans.”

via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/obama-boehner-relationship-plunges-to-new-low-with-annihilate-remark-20130123

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How Mini-Cliffs Could Ruin Obama’s Second Term

Eight and a half minutes into the final press conference of his first term, President Obama hadn’t talked about anything but reducing budget deficits and the national debt, and increasing the federal borrowing authority. He taunted Republicans—“Turns out, the American people agree with me”—and recycled campaign rhetoric, invoked troops’ paychecks as potential casualties of default, and looked to define the debt-ceiling boost in the White House’s preferred terms: “It simply allows the country to pay for spending that Congress has already committed to.”

Only near the end of his opening remarks did Obama turn to the issues that Democrats hope will mark his second term: energy, immigration, and gun control. If Republicans have their way, the pattern will hold and Obama will be deprived of a meaningful second-term legacy on domestic issues beyond a series of economic rescue missions.

Washington needs no reminder of how big-casino fiscal negotiations can crowd out the rest of a policy agenda. If congressional Republicans hold their ground, they could force a series of “mini-cliffs”—short-term borrowing-authority extensions or continuing budget resolutions that expire every two or three months. The GOP could use budgetary hostage-taking as a reasonable strategic replacement for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s original goal for Obama’s first term: keep him from having a second.

via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/how-mini-cliffs-could-ruin-obama-s-second-term-20130117

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For Republicans, Just Doing the Math is Frightening

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is preparing a push for an immigration-reform proposal that promises to be the first real test of whether Republicans have learned a lesson from the Nov. 6 election results. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans won the white vote by numbers normally seen in landslide victories, and they also won independents by 5 and 7 percentage points, respectively. But Romney lost the election nationally by almost 4 points, and the GOP lost the overall popular vote for the House of Representatives. Although winning big among white voters and carrying the independent vote is necessary for GOP victories nationally, it’s no longer sufficient to win.

The white share of the vote in presidential elections has dropped 15 points over the past six elections, from 87 percent in 1992 to 72 percent in 2012. This trend has little to do with Barack Obama, the nation’s first African-American president. The declines from one presidential election to the next have been consistent: a 4-point drop from 1992 to 1996, 2 more points in 2000, 4 additional points in 2004, 3 points in 2008, and 2 points last year.

At the same time, the Republican share of the minority vote is getting grisly. Among the 13 percent of voters who are black, Obama won by 87 percentage points, 93 percent to 6 percent, while congressional Democrats won by 78 points, 91 percent to 13 percent. Latinos made up 10 percent of last year’s electorate and gave the president a 44-point edge, 71 percent to 27 percent, while congressional Democrats had a 38-point advantage, 68 percent to 30 percent. The Asian-American vote—3 percent of the electorate and now the fastest-growing ethnic group—sided with Obama by 47 points, 73 percent to 26 percent; congressional Democrats won by a 1-point-wider margin, 73 percent to 25 percent.

via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/for-republicans-just-doing-the-math-is-frightening-20130117

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The Latest Debt-Ceiling Proposal: Issue IOU’s

The $1 trillion platinum coin seems too wacky; the 14th amendment too risky. But could IOU’s be the solution to an impasse on raising the nation’s borrowing limit?

Yes, and President Obama should publicly adopt the idea, Edward Kleinbard, a University of Southern California law professor and former chief of staff to Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation, argues in a Thursday New York Times op-ed. If lawmakers can’t reach an agreement before the nation hits its debt ceiling–which could happen as soon as next month–then Obama should have a backup plan of issuing IOU’s in place, Kleinbard argues. 

“[Obama] should threaten to issue scrip—’registered warrants’—to existing claims holders (other than those who own actual government debt) in lieu of money. Recipients of these I.O.U.’s could include federal employees, defense contractors, Medicare service providers, Social Security recipients and others.”

Kleinbard is hardly the first to propose the idea. Slate’s Matt Yglesias suggested it in early December. And New York Times Op-Ed columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman argued for such IOU’s on Monday, though he called them “Moral Obligation Coupons.” In Krugman and Kleinbard, the idea has found two prominent proponents.

Without congressional intervention, the government is expected to reach its debt ceiling in the second half of February, the Bipartisan Policy Center predicts. The only thing preventing a devastating national default, which could have ripple effects around the globe, are a handful of hail-mary proposals:

  • One that calls for Treasury to use its power to create commemorative coins to mint a $1 trillion platinum coin. The idea has gained traction among some, but mostly as an absurd solution to an absurd problem.
  • One that calls for Treasury to use its power to create commemorative coins to mint a $1 trillion platinum coin. The idea has gained traction among some, but mostly as an absurd solution to an absurd problem.

    • via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/economy/the-latest-debt-ceiling-proposal-issue-iou-s-20130110

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    The Emerging Rubio-Ryan Republican Divide

    Lumped together as two of the youngest and brightest Republican stars, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio parted ways on the fiscal cliff with votes that reflect divergent strategies for building their party and political futures.

    Ryan, who accepted tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans in order to avert a potential economic disaster, is betting that the path to power runs through compromise and governing. After anchoring a losing Republican presidential ticket widely perceived as hostile to middle-class concerns, Ryan heeded polls showing the public ready to blame the GOP if the deal fell through. The powerful budget committee chairman loyal to House Speaker John Boehner is mostly playing the inside game.

    Rubio, who defeated a sitting governor on the back of the tea party movement, is largely playing the outside game. He rarely bucks the GOP’s conservative base – consider his recent votes against an overstuffed Hurricane Sandy aid bill and a United Nations treaty protecting people with disabilities — though an opportunity looms in the anticipated debate over immigration reform. Rubio appears more invested more in cultivating his national profile than in courting leadership on Capitol Hill.

    via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-emerging-rubio-ryan-republican-divide-20130103?page=1

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    AG Holder Will Stay Into Obama’s Second Term

    Attorney General Eric Holder will remain in his post going into President Obama’s second term, but only for about a year, Fox News reports.

    Honoring the president’s request to stay with the administration, and preventing a mass exodus of political appointees, Holder will stay in the position, which has often come under fire by conservatives for cases such as the botched gun running program known as Fast and Furious.

    Some names that have surfaced to replace Holder include Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Sens. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Fox News reported.

    via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/ag-holder-will-stay-into-obama-s-second-term-20121120

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    Hispanic Exit Polls Suggest Seismic Shift in Florida

    Exit polls showing the powerful Cuban-American community in Florida favored President Obama – which would make him the first Democratic nominee in decades to penetrate that Republican Party stronghold — suggest a seismic political shift in the nation’s largest swing state.

    Obama’s growing appeal among Cuban-Americans, coupled with his overwhelming popularity in the booming Puerto Rican community, signals trouble for the Republican Party and threatens to repaint Florida from purple to blue if the trend continues.

    While Republicans are recriminating about the Hispanic vote nationwide, the flagellation is especially painful in Florida, with its bounty of 29 electoral votes.

    via Homepage http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/hispanic-exit-polls-suggest-seismic-shift-in-florida-20121109

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    Reid Says He’s Ready to Deal, Suggests Boehner Is Too

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said he is ready to compromise on taxes and budget cuts, and he’s hopeful that House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, is also set to deal following a “pleasant” Wednesday morning conversation with Boehner.

    Reid called Tuesday’s election results a signal that Americans are “tired of partisan gridlock.”
    “I am going to do everything in my power to be as conciliatory as possible. We want to work together,” Reid said at Weds. news conference, while warning Democrats refuse “to be pushed around.”

    Reid suggested he expects Boehner, at his own news conference this afternoon, will strike a more conciliatory tone than he did in a recent assertion that House Republicans will oppose any revenue increase as part of an agreement to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of tax increases and budget cuts set to hit in January.

    “He is not drawing any lines in the sand. I am not drawing any lines in the sand,” Reid said.
    Reid said an agreement must include added tax revenue, and seemed to suggest Boehner was not personally ruling out that option, though he is restricted by his conference.

    Reid, who also said he spoke Tuesday night with President Obama, rejected assertions that the election left Washington’s balance of power unchanged. In addition to Obama’s resounding victory, “we picked up seats in the Senate; we picked up seats in the House,” Reid said.

    “That’s not the status quo.”

    Reid offered little about his legislative plans, but said he planned to test calls by leading for the GOP to soften its stance on immigration with multiple votes in the next Congress on unspecified immigration reform proposals.

    Reid said he expects the government will not hit the federal debt ceiling during the lame duck. And he said he hopes for a comprehensive deal addressing the fiscal cliff. “I am not for kicking the can down the road,” he said. “I think we’ve done that far too much.”

    via Homepage http://influencealley.nationaljournal.com/2012/11/reid-ready-to-deal-says-boehne.php