{"id":3515,"date":"2013-09-24T09:18:53","date_gmt":"2013-09-24T13:18:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/?p=3515"},"modified":"2013-09-24T09:18:53","modified_gmt":"2013-09-24T13:18:53","slug":"trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/2013\/09\/24\/trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney\/","title":{"rendered":"Trader Lost Millions Betting on Romney"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>A new <a href=\"http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2322420\">academic paper<\/a> digging into presidential betting in the final weeks of the 2012 election finds that a single trader lost between $4 million and $7 million placing a flurry of Intrade bets on Mitt Romney\u00e2\u20ac\u201dperhaps to make the Republican nominee&#8217;s chance of victory appear brighter.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>Two economists who studied the data offer various rationales for the trader&#8217;s aggressive wagering on Mr. Romney in the final two weeks of the campaign. The anonymous trader placed 1.2 million pro-Romney contracts, some of which were actually in the form of bets against a Barack Obama victory.<\/p>\n<p>The most plausible reason for the betting, the authors conclude, is that &quot;this trader could have been attempting to manipulate beliefs about the odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout.&quot;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via the <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/washwire\/2013\/09\/23\/one-big-trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney-study-finds\/\">WSJ<\/a> via <a href=\"http:\/\/politicalwire.com\/archives\/2013\/09\/23\/trader_lost_millions_betting_on_romney.html\">PoliticalWire<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Weird behavior on the Romney-Obama betting market <a href=\"http:\/\/www.metafilter.com\/121248\/Put-your-money-where-your-mouth-is\">previously<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/Metafilter?a=S_4q7UrBWqs:WZwLpV058g8:D7DqB2pKExk\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/Metafilter?i=S_4q7UrBWqs:WZwLpV058g8:D7DqB2pKExk\" border=\"0\"><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p>via MetaFilter http:\/\/www.metafilter.com\/132249\/Trader-Lost-Millions-Betting-on-Romney<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new academic paper digging into presidential betting in the final weeks of the 2012 election finds that a single trader lost between $4 million and $7 million placing a flurry of Intrade bets on Mitt Romney\u00e2\u20ac\u201dperhaps to make the Republican nominee&#8217;s chance of victory appear brighter. Two economists who studied the data offer various &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/2013\/09\/24\/trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Trader Lost Millions Betting on Romney&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[1031,6,1032,1033],"class_list":["post-3515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-feedly","tag-ifttt","tag-recently-read","tag-saved-for-later"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2skW4-UH","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3515\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}