{"id":842,"date":"2012-07-25T12:31:33","date_gmt":"2012-07-25T16:31:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/?p=842"},"modified":"2012-07-25T12:31:33","modified_gmt":"2012-07-25T16:31:33","slug":"a-decade-of-digital-media-flops-and-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/gabrielsnyder.com\/notes\/2012\/07\/25\/a-decade-of-digital-media-flops-and-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"A decade of digital media flops and predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\"\"<\/a>Media flops<\/h2>\n

Microsoft rolls out the Zune to go up against the iPod<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0in 2006.\u00c2\u00a0And then, three years later, a new Zune HD<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0to vie with the iPod Touch. \u00c2\u00a0The Zune gets more traction with late-night talk-show comedians than with consumers. Both the player and the brand are now dead.<\/p>\n

Burger King gives away a free AOL Music download with every Original Whopper.<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0The download code is on the burger wrapper \u00e2\u20ac\u201d try not to get grease on your screen!<\/p>\n

McDonald\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s begins renting DVDs.<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0Actually, this one wasn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t a total flop: Turns out people don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t want DVDs with their fries, but Redbox, which now has over 30,000 kiosks, got its start in McDonald\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s.<\/p>\n

News Corp says consumers are \u00e2\u20ac\u0153desperate\u00e2\u20ac\u009d for $30 HD movie rentals.<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0Well, that desperation was pretty short-lived: Today, you can rent an HD movie on iTunes for $4.99, or buy one for under $20.<\/p>\n

Simon & Schuster decides ebooks need more video, and introduces the Vook.<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0Vooks never takes off \u00e2\u20ac\u201d it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s kind of hard to get immersed in a book when videos and Twitter hashtags are competing for your attention \u00e2\u20ac\u201c\u00c2\u00a0and neither do\u00c2\u00a0these ebooks with built-in soundtracks<\/a>). Vook pivots and is now an ebook publishing platform.<\/p>\n

Yahoo introduces Twitter competitor \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Yahoo Meme.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0The tagline is \u00e2\u20ac\u0153No time or patience to blog?\u00e2\u20ac\u009d with a picture of dogs saying \u00e2\u20ac\u0153wow!\u00e2\u20ac\u009d and \u00e2\u20ac\u0153yum!\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n

Sears launches its own movie download service.<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0Walmart and Best Buy both have download services, so why not Sears too! \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Alphaline\u00e2\u20ac\u009d goes under in less than a year.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a>Not the next Facebook<\/h2>\n

Walmart\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s social network \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The Hub\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/a><\/p>\n

Lycos\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 social movie service \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Lycos Cinema<\/a>\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n

MySpace\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s social news service<\/a> (MySpace itself, for that matter)<\/p>\n

Nielsen\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s social network\/market research combo<\/a> \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Hey Nielsen\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n

Conde Nast\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s teen social network \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Flip\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/a><\/p>\n

AOL\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s AIM Pages<\/a><\/p>\n

Martha Stewart\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s social network<\/a><\/p>\n

The art of making predictions<\/h2>\n

The next great American newspaper will be online only. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Instead of writing one longish piece, reporters will write (say) five short ones\u00e2\u20ac\u201cwill belt out little stories all the time, as things happen.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u201c David Gelernter in \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The Weekly Standard,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d 2003<\/a><\/p>\n

Did it come true?<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0Yes. The Huffington Post may not be a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153great American newspaper,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d but it \u00e2\u20ac\u201d and hundreds of other news blogs \u00e2\u20ac\u201d follow the constantly updated news model that Gelernter envisioned.<\/p>\n

The average person will spend 10 hours a day with media by 2009.\u00c2\u00a0\u00e2\u20ac\u201c Private equity firm Veronis Suhler Stevenson, 2005<\/a>
\"\"<\/a>
Did it come true?<\/strong> Yes: A 2010 eMarketer survey found that<\/a>\u00c2\u00a0the average American spent 10.6 hours per day with media in 2008 and 11 hours in 2010.<\/p>\n

MySpace will be worth $15 billion within a few years. \u00e2\u20ac\u201c\u00c2\u00a0RBC Capital analyst Jordan Rohan in 2006<\/a><\/p>\n

Did it come true?\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>Definitely not. In 2011, News Corp sold off MySpace for just $35 million<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Warren Buffett says he won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t buy more newspapers \u00e2\u20ac\u0153at any price.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201d Warren Buffett, 2010<\/a><\/p>\n

Did it come true?\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong>No. Buffett\u00c2\u00a0bought 63 local newspapers<\/a> in a $142 million deal in 2012.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n